[Age-specific regional characteristics of COVID-19 mortality in 2021]. / A COVID­19-halandóság életkor-specifikus regionális jellemzoi 2021-ben.

INTRODUCTION: In most countries, COVID-19 mortality increases exponentially with age, but the growth rate varies considerably between countries. The different progression of mortality may reflect differences in population health, the quality of health care or coding practices. OBJECTIVE: In this study, we investigated differences in age-specific county characteristics of COVID-19 mortality in the second year of the pandemic. METHOD: Age-specific patterns of COVID-19 adult mortality were estimated according to county level and sex using a Gompertz function with multilevel models. RESULTS: The Gompertz function is suitable for describing age patterns of COVID-19 adult mortality at county level. We did not find significant differences in the age progression of mortality between counties, but there were significant spatial differences in the level of mortality. The mortality level showed a relationship with socioeconomic and health care indicators with the expected sign, but with different strengths. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic in 2021 resulted in a decline in life expectancy in Hungary not seen since World War II. The study highlights the importance of healthcare in addition to social vulnerability. It also points out that understanding age patterns will help to mitigate the consequences of the epidemic. Orv Hetil. 2023; 164(17): 643-650.

Age-specific SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality rates derived from serological data vary with income and income inequality.

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has killed at least 1.1 million people in the United States and over 6.7 million globally. Accurately estimating the age-specific infection fatality rate (IFR) of SARS-CoV-2 for different populations is crucial for assessing and understanding the impact of COVID-19 and for appropriately allocating vaccines and treatments to at-risk groups. We estimated age-specific IFRs of wild-type SARS-CoV-2 using published seroprevalence, case, and death data from New York City (NYC) from March to May 2020, using a Bayesian framework that accounted for delays between key epidemiological events. IFRs increased 3-4-fold with every 20 years of age, from 0.06% in individuals between 18-45 years old to 4.7% in individuals over 75. We then compared IFRs in NYC to several city- and country-wide estimates including England, Switzerland (Geneva), Sweden (Stockholm), Belgium, Mexico, and Brazil, as well as a global estimate. IFRs in NYC were higher for individuals younger than 65 years old than most other populations, but similar for older individuals. IFRs for age groups less than 65 decreased with income and increased with income inequality measured using the Gini index. These results demonstrate that the age-specific fatality of COVID-19 differs among developed countries and raises questions about factors underlying these differences, including underlying health conditions and healthcare access.

Evaluation of the late presentation and associated factors of people living with HIV in Turkey.

To identify the frequency of late presentation and late presentation with advanced disease, and associated factors in people living with HIV (PLHIV). Data from PLHIV diagnosed between 2008 and 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. Time of diagnosis (categorized based on key events affecting HIV care continuum e.g., national strategies, HIV guidelines, COVID-19 pandemic) and characteristics of late presenters (LP: CD4 ≤350 cells/mm³ or an AIDS defining event) and late presenters with advanced disease (LPAD: CD4 <200 cells/mm³) were describe. Associations between dependent (LP, LPAD) and independent variables were assessed using univariate/multivariate regression tests and presented as odds ratios (95% confidential interval). Of 1585 individuals (93.7% men), 42.5% were LPs and 19.3% were LPADs. Most common route of transmission was sex between men (54.3%). Non-LPs were younger (30 vs. 34 and 36 years; p < 0.001) and included more men who have sex with men (60.3% vs. 46.3% and 39.5%; p < 0.001). Factors associated with being LP and LPAD were age >30 years, heterosexual/unknown route of transmission (vs. sex between men), diagnosis in 2008-2013 or 2020-2021, (vs. 2014-2019). With reference to Turkish subjects, migrants from Africa had higher odds of being LPAD. LP is still an important health issue in HIV care. Heterosexuality, older age (>30 years), migration from Africa, and the COVID-19 pandemic are associated with delays in HIV presentation in Turkey. These factors need to be considered when developing and implementing policies to enable earlier diagnosis and treatment of PLHIV to achieve UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets.

Race and Ethnicity-Adjusted Age Recommendation for Initiating Breast Cancer Screening.

Importance: Breast cancer (BC) is the second leading cause of cancer death in women, and there is a substantial disparity in BC mortality by race, especially for early-onset BC in Black women. Many guidelines recommend starting BC screening from age 50 years; however, the current one-size-fits-all policy to start screening all women from a certain age may not be fair, equitable, or optimal. Objective: To provide race and ethnicity-adapted starting ages of BC screening based on data on current racial and ethnic disparities in BC mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: This nationwide population-based cross-sectional study was conducted using data on BC mortality in female patients in the US who died of BC in 2011 to 2020. Exposures: Proxy-reported race and ethnicity information was used. The risk-adapted starting age of BC screening by race and ethnicity was measured based on 10-year cumulative risk of BC-specific death. Age-specific 10-year cumulative risk was calculated based on age group-specific mortality data without modeling or adjustment. Main Outcomes and Measures: Disease-specific mortality due to invasive BC in female patients. Results: There were BC-specific deaths among 415 277 female patients (1880 American Indian or Alaska Native [0.5%], 12 086 Asian or Pacific Islander [2.9%], 62 695 Black [15.1%], 28 747 Hispanic [6.9%], and 309 869 White [74.6%]; 115 214 patients died before age 60 years [27.7%]) of any age in the US in 2011 to 2020. BC mortality per 100 000 person-years for ages 40 to 49 years was 27 deaths in Black females, 15 deaths in White females, and 11 deaths in American Indian or Alaska Native, Hispanic, and Asian or Pacific Islander females. When BC screening was recommended to start at age 50 years for all females with a 10-year cumulative risk of BC death of 0.329%, Black females reached this risk threshold level 8 years earlier, at age 42 years, whereas White females reached it at age 51 years, American Indian or Alaska Native and Hispanic females at age 57 years, and Asian or Pacific Islander females 11 years later, at age 61 years. Race and ethnicity-adapted starting ages for Black females were 6 years earlier for mass screening at age 40 years and 7 years earlier for mass screening at age 45 years. Conclusions and Relevance: This study provides evidence-based race-adapted starting ages for BC screening. These findings suggest that health policy makers may consider a risk-adapted approach to BC screening in which individuals who are at high risk are screened earlier to address mortality due to early-onset BC before the recommended age of mass screening.

Feasibility and parental perception of home sleep studies during COVID-19: a tertiary sleep centre experience.

OBJECTIVE: Rapid implementation of home sleep studies during the first UK COVID-19 'lockdown'-completion rates, family feedback and factors that predict success. DESIGN: We included all patients who had a sleep study conducted at home instead of as inpatient from 30 March 2020 to 30 June 2020. Studies with less than 4 hours of data for analysis were defined 'unsuccessful'. RESULTS: 137 patients were included. 96 underwent home respiratory polygraphy (HRP), median age 5.5 years. 41 had oxycapnography (O2/CO2), median age 5 years. 56% HRP and 83% O2/CO2 were successful. A diagnosis of autism predicted a lower success rate (29%) as did age under 5 years. CONCLUSION: Switching studies rapidly from an inpatient to a home environment is possible, but there are several challenges that include a higher failure rate in younger children and those with neurodevelopmental disorders.

Age-specific transmission dynamics under suppression control measures during SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 epidemic.

BACKGROUND: From March to June 2022, an Omicron BA.2 epidemic occurred in Shanghai. We aimed to better understand the transmission dynamics and identify age-specific transmission characteristics for the epidemic. METHODS: Data on COVID-19 cases were collected from the Shanghai Municipal Health Commission during the period from 20th February to 1st June. The effective reproductive number (Rt) and transmission distance between cases were calculated. An age-structured SEIR model with social contact patterns was developed to reconstruct the transmission dynamics and evaluate age-specific transmission characteristics. Least square method was used to calibrate the model. Basic reproduction number (R0) was estimated with next generation matrix. RESULTS: R0 of Omicron variant was 7.9 (95% CI: 7.4 to 8.4). With strict interventions, Rt had dropped quickly from 3.6 (95% CI: 2.7 to 4.7) on 4th March to below 1 on 18th April. The mean transmission distance of the Omicron epidemic in Shanghai was 13.4 km (95% CI: 11.1 to 15.8 km), which was threefold longer compared with that of epidemic caused by the wild-type virus in Wuhan, China. The model estimated that there would have been a total 870,845 (95% CI: 815,400 to 926,289) cases for the epidemic from 20th February to 15th June, and 27.7% (95% CI: 24.4% to 30.9%) cases would have been unascertained. People aged 50-59 years had the highest transmission risk 0.216 (95% CI: 0.210 to 0.222), and the highest secondary attack rate (47.62%, 95% CI: 38.71% to 56.53%). CONCLUSIONS: The Omicron variant spread more quickly and widely than other variants and resulted in about one third cases unascertained for the recent outbreak in Shanghai. Prioritizing isolation and screening of people aged 40-59 might suppress the epidemic more effectively. Routine surveillance among people aged 40-59 years could also provide insight into the stage of the epidemic and the timely detection of new variants. TRIAL REGISTRATION: We did not involve clinical trial.

Estimating Older Adult Mortality From COVID-19.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to employ simulations to model the probability of mortality from COVID-19 (i.e., coronavirus) for older adults in the United States given at best and at worst cases. METHODS: This study first examined current epidemiological reports to better understand the risk of mortality from COVID-19. Past epidemiological studies from severe acute respiratory syndrome were also examined given similar virology. Next, at best and at worst mortality cases were considered with the goal of estimating the probability of mortality. To accomplish this for the general population, microdata from the National Health Interview Survey pooled sample (2016, 2017, and 2018 public-use NHIS with a sample of 34,881 adults at least 60 years of age) were utilized. Primary measures included age and health status (diabetes, body mass index, and hypertension). A logit regression with 100,000 simulations was employed to derive the estimates and probabilities. RESULTS: Age exhibited a positive association for the probability of death with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.22 (p < .05, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05-1.42). A positive association was also found for body mass index (BMI) (OR 1.03, p < .01, 95% CI: 1.02-1.04) and hypertension (OR 1.36, p < .01, 95% CI: 1.09-1.66) for the at best case. Diabetes was significant but only for the at best case. DISCUSSION: This study found mortality increased with age and was notable for the 74-79 age group for the at best case and the 70-79 age group of the at worst case. Obesity was also important and suggested a higher risk for mortality. Hypertension also exhibited greater risk but the increase was minimal. Given the volume of information and misinformation, these findings can be applied by health professionals, gerontologists, social workers, and local policymakers to better inform older adults about mortality risks and, in the process, reestablish public trust.

Acute kidney injury in patients with COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study from Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Data about patients in Europe with corona virus disease-2019 (COVID-19) and acute kidney injury (AKI) are scarce. We examined characteristics, presentation and risk factors of AKI in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in a tertiary hospital in Switzerland. METHODS: We reviewed health records of patients hospitalised with a positive nasopharyngeal polymerase chain reaction test for SARS-CoV2 between 1 February and 30 June 2020, at the University Hospital of Basel. The nadir creatinine of the hospitalisation was used as baseline. AKI was defined according the KDIGO guidelines as a 1.5× increase of baseline creatinine and in-hospital renal recovery as a discharge creatinine <1.25× baseline creatinine. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was performed to select predictive variables of AKI. Based on this a final model was chosen. RESULTS: Of 188 patients with COVID-19, 41 (22%) developed AKI, and 11 (6%) required renal replacement therapy. AKI developed after a median of 9 days (interquartile range [IQR] 5-12) after the first symptoms and a median of 1 day (IQR 0-5) after hospital admission. The peak AKI stages were stage 1 in 39%, stage 2 in 24% and stage 3 in 37%. A total of 29 (15%) patients were admitted to the intensive care unit and of these 23 (79%) developed AKI. In-hospital renal recovery at discharge was observed in 61% of all AKI episodes. In-hospital mortality was 27% in patients with AKI and 10% in patients without AKI. Age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01­1.08; p = 0.024), history of chronic kidney disease (aOR 3.47, 95% CI 1.16­10.49;p = 0.026), C-reactive protein levels (aOR 1.09, 95% CI 1.03­1.06; p = 0.002) and creatinine kinase (aOR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01­1.06; p = 0.002) were associated with development of AKI. CONCLUSIONS: AKI is common in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 and more often seen in patients with severe COVID-19 illness. AKI is associated with a high in-hospital mortality.

COVID-19 and stroke: from the cases to the causes.

During COVID-19 pandemic, a wide variety of stroke typologies have been described in patients affected by SARS-CoV-2. Investigating the case reports of acute stroke in COVID-19 patients, published since the beginning of the pandemic, we tried to trace the pathogenic mechanisms of stroke during SARS-CoV-2 infection. We conducted a systematic review analyzing demographic data, cerebrovascular risk factors, NIHSS score, vascular territory involvement and laboratory findings of 168 patients described in 89 studies, from a pool of 1243 records. Based on our results, we have identified different stroke profiles: (1) cerebral large vessel disease (CLVD) profile with a low disability, simultaneous onset of COVID-19 and stroke symptoms, good outcome and low serum levels of D-dimer and CRP; (2) intracranial bleeding (IB) profile with high disability, poor outcome and low levels of serum markers of inflammation and coagulopathy; (3) CLVD profile with a short time-lapse between COVID-19 symptoms and stroke onset, high neurological disability and very high systemic inflammatory markers; (4) multiple thrombo-embolic disease (MTED) profile with older patients, many comorbidities, disabling stroke, poor outcome, evident alteration of coagulation tests and high serum levels of both D-dimer and CRP. We therefore summarized these different profiles in a spectrum similar to that of visible light, where the violet-blue band included IB and CSVD with low inflammation and prothrombotic activity, the green-yellow band included CLVD with high inflammation and moderate prothrombotic activity and the orange-red band for MTED with moderate-high levels of inflammation and very high prothrombotic activity.

Early experimental COVID-19 therapies: associations with length of hospital stay, mortality and related costs.

AIMS OF THE STUDY: Hydroxychloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir have been used as experimental therapies to treat COVID-19 during the first wave of the pandemic. Randomised controlled trials have recently shown that there are no meaningful benefits of these two therapies in hospitalised patients. Uncertainty remains regarding the potential harmful impact of these therapies as very early treatments and their burden to the health care system. The present study investigated the length of hospital stay (LOS), mortality, and costs of hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir/ritonavir or their combination in comparison with standard of care among patients hospitalised for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: This retrospective observational cohort study took place in the Geneva University Hospitals, Geneva, Switzerland (n = 840) between 26 February and 31 May 2020. Demographics, treatment regimens, comorbidities, the modified National Early Warning Score (mNEWS) on admission, and contraindications to COVID-19 treatment options were assessed. Outcomes included LOS, in-hospital mortality, and drug and LOS costs. RESULTS: After successful propensity score matching, patients treated with (1) hydroxychloroquine, (2) lopinavir/ritonavir or (3) their combination had on average 3.75 additional hospitalisation days (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.37–6.12, p = 0.002), 1.23 additional hospitalisation days (95% CI −1.24 – 3.51, p = 0.319), and 4.19 additional hospitalisation days (95% CI 1.52–5.31, p <0.001), respectively, compared with patients treated with the standard of care. Neither experimental therapy was significantly associated with mortality. These additional hospital days amounted to 1010.77 additional days for hydroxychloroquine and hydroxychloroquine combined with lopinavir/ritonavir, resulting in an additional cost of US$ 2,492,214 (95%CI US$ 916,839–3,450,619). CONCLUSIONS: Prescribing experimental therapies for COVID-19 was not associated with a reduced LOS and might have increased the pressure put on healthcare systems.

Characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 patients in New York City's public hospital system.

BACKGROUND: New York City (NYC) bore the greatest burden of COVID-19 in the United States early in the pandemic. In this case series, we describe characteristics and outcomes of racially and ethnically diverse patients tested for and hospitalized with COVID-19 in New York City's public hospital system. METHODS: We reviewed the electronic health records of all patients who received a SARS-CoV-2 test between March 5 and April 9, 2020, with follow up through April 16, 2020. The primary outcomes were a positive test, hospitalization, and death. Demographics and comorbidities were also assessed. RESULTS: 22254 patients were tested for SARS-CoV-2. 13442 (61%) were positive; among those, the median age was 52.7 years (interquartile range [IQR] 39.5-64.5), 7481 (56%) were male, 3518 (26%) were Black, and 4593 (34%) were Hispanic. Nearly half (4669, 46%) had at least one chronic disease (27% diabetes, 30% hypertension, and 21% cardiovascular disease). Of those testing positive, 6248 (46%) were hospitalized. The median age was 61.6 years (IQR 49.7-72.9); 3851 (62%) were male, 1950 (31%) were Black, and 2102 (34%) were Hispanic. More than half (3269, 53%) had at least one chronic disease (33% diabetes, 37% hypertension, 24% cardiovascular disease, 11% chronic kidney disease). 1724 (28%) hospitalized patients died. The median age was 71.0 years (IQR 60.0, 80.9); 1087 (63%) were male, 506 (29%) were Black, and 528 (31%) were Hispanic. Chronic diseases were common (35% diabetes, 37% hypertension, 28% cardiovascular disease, 15% chronic kidney disease). Male sex, older age, diabetes, cardiac history, and chronic kidney disease were significantly associated with testing positive, hospitalization, and death. Racial/ethnic disparities were observed across all outcomes. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This is the largest and most racially/ethnically diverse case series of patients tested and hospitalized for COVID-19 in New York City to date. Our findings highlight disparities in outcomes that can inform prevention and testing recommendations.

Cardiovascular aspects of COVID-19.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is primarily a pulmonary disease, but also affects the cardiovascular system in multiple ways. In this review, we will summarise and put into perspective findings and debates relating to the diverse aspects of cardiovascular involvement of COVID-19. We will review evidence for the role of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS), the risk of pre-existing cardiovascular disease in COVID-19 susceptibility and course, and the mechanism of acute and long-term myocardial injury. The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) uses membrane-bound angiotensin converting-enzyme-2 (ACE2) as a receptor for cell entry. ACE2 is part of an important counter-regulatory circuit antagonising the harmful effects of angiotensin II on lung and heart. Modulation of ACE2 may therefore affect disease susceptibility and disease course. However, observational clinical studies and one randomised trial have so far not yielded evidence for harmful or beneficial effects of blockers of the RAAS during COVID-19. Age, gender, and multi-morbidity all increase susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2. In contrast, pre-existing cardiovascular diseases do so only minimally, but they may aggravate the disease course. Direct SARS-CoV-2 infection of the heart tissue and myocytes is rare. Nevertheless, COVID-19 may lead to myocarditis-like acute cardiac injury, characterised by myocardial oedema, but lacking extensive myocyte loss and lymphocytic infiltration. Independent of this, increases in cardiac biomarkers (troponin, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, D-dimer) are frequent, especially in the phase of severe systemic inflammation and acute respiratory distress syndrome, and quantitatively associated with poor outcome. The pulmonary infection may result initially in right ventricular dysfunction, but in cases with severe systemic infection hypoxia, hyperinflammation and cytokine storm heart failure may eventually ensue. Unlike other infections and inflammatory states, COVID-19 does not appear to trigger acute coronary syndromes. In children, even mild COVID-19 can induce a multisystem inflammatory syndrome with Kawasaki-like symptoms frequently accompanied by cardiogenic shock.